Forecast for Scotland shows race hotting up
Welcome to the daily ITV News digest direct from the campaign trail. Each afternoon we'll bring you analysis and insight from across the nation as the General Election 2024 enters its final stages.
Hi, I’m Peter Smith, the Scotland correspondent for ITV News. I keep hearing from our weather team that there’s a heatwave sweeping the country - not so up here in Scotland. In fact, I’m writing this while sheltering from another downpour on a grey, dreich day in Edinburgh.
There is another big difference when it comes to forecasts because while polling indicates this election might not be the most exciting or unpredictable race to get into Downing Street, in Scotland it is still undecided.
Most polls have Labour in the lead here. However, almost a third of the nation’s seats could change hands with a swing of less than 5% - and even the polling companies admit a quarter of their predictions are, in fact, too close to call.
We can’t rely on the MRP polls here in the way we can elsewhere because the Scottish data is different.
At the last election, the MRPs for Scotland called about seven seats incorrectly, so they come with a massive ‘health warning’.
So in the next seven days, while other parts of the UK might be sweating from exposure to actual vitamin D, us Scots will have to console ourselves that at least our election campaign is expected to heat up.
For more analysis on the day’s events, check out Talking Politics, our daily podcast from the campaign live from 4pm on ITVX, hosted today by News at Ten presenter Tom Bradby, with Robert Peston and Anushka Asthana. Or watch on demand on ITVX or where you listen to your podcasts.
Thanks for reading and enjoy some of the best content brought to you by the rest of the ITV News team below.
PM refuses to say whether he told aide of election date
Rishi Sunak has refused to say whether he told close aide Craig Williams about the date of the election before he put a bet on it.
The prime minister was asked multiple times whether he told Mr Williams when the election would be, but Mr Sunak said he was unable to answer during an "ongoing investigation".
The Metropolitan Police has revealed it’s taking charge of investigations for the most serious cases in the election betting scandal.
The force says it’s investigating one of Rishi Sunak's close protection officers, along with some politicians and party officials for potential misconduct in public office offences.
So far, five Conservative candidates and officials have also been caught up in the inquiry, although the authorities have not confirmed their identities, with reports suggesting the figure could be 15 parliamentary candidates and officials.
One Labour candidate is also being investigated by the Gambling Commission for betting he would lose the seat he's contesting.
Today, PM Rishi Sunak sidestepped a question about Tory Sir Philip Davies allegedly betting on himself to lose his seat, but insisted he was taking a firm line with candidates who broke gambling rules.
Last night, during the last TV head-to-head between the two leaders, the issue of gambling and trust featured heavily.
You can watch the highlights from that debate on ITVX.
Starmer under fire for Bangladeshi migrants comments
Keir Starmer is facing a backlash from his own party after he singled out Bangladesh as a country to where illegal migrants are not being deported quickly enough.
Speaking specifically about people who come to the UK illegally, the Labour leader said during a debate hosted by The Sun newspaper that: “I’ll make sure we got planes going off… back to the countries where people came from."
He then highlighted Bangladesh as an example, saying “at the moment people coming from countries like Bangladesh are not being removed”.
There’s been a backlash from members of the Bangladeshi community, as well as Labour Party members, including the resignation of Stepney Green Councillor Sabina Akhtar.
Today, Sir Keir sought to defuse the row, saying: “They’ve made a massive contribution to our economy, to our culture and to our country. I certainly wasn’t intending to cause any concern or offence to any Bangladeshi community here.”
You can keep across the latest on the row on ITVX.
Reform losing support over ‘stupid comments’, warns Farage
Nigel Farage says his Reform UK party might be losing support because too many of his candidates have said “stupid things”, ITV News Political Correspondent Harry Horton reports.
In recent days a series of opinion polls have seen Reform UK’s ratings decrease after the party had been closing the gap with, and in some cases overtaking the Conservatives.
Mr Farage suggested the drop in support had nothing to do with his comments about the West “provoking” Russia to invade Ukraine.
Instead he blamed numerous reports about historical remarks made by some Reform UK candidates.
‘It’s been absolute rubbish for three or four years’
In the run-up to the General Election, ITV Cymru Wales is out on the road and taking the iconic No.10 door to the voters to find out what they want from the next prime minister.
This week’s stop: Brecon.
Boundary changes mean the new Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe seat encompasses what was formerly the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency, with its edges now stretching towards Pontardawe to take in what was part of the former Neath boundary.
ITV Cymru Wales went to ask the people of Brecon to write a postcard to the PM...
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Junior doctors strike and voting with your heart - Day 36 of the campaign

More strike action could take place in the summer if the next government does not move forward negotiations with junior doctors in a “timely manner”, medics have warned as they started a five-day walkout across England.
The British Medical Association (BMA) said it stands ready to talk and the union has already had some discussions with the Labour Party.
Labour has already indicated it will not be able to satisfy the key BMA demand of a 35% rise - but has said it will open negotiations promptly should it gain power.
Sir Keir Starmer, visiting Staffordshire today, said: “This is a problem the Government has failed to deal with, and if we’re elected into government we will have to pick it up. What we will do is ensure on day one we start the discussion.”
Health secretary Victoria Atkins said the strike was “cynical”.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, speaking during a visit to a pottery factory in Derbyshire, urged voters to think long and hard about their choice. He was challenged on the rising use of food banks.
“I understand why many of you might be hesitant about supporting us again at this election,” he said, “Before you make that choice, you should just think very hard about what a Labour government would actually mean for you.”
Nigel Farage was campaigning in the north east where he urged those wavering voters to “follow their heart” and it could see his Reform UK party pick up seats.
He said on a visit near Sunderland: “The polls at the moment show were second place to Labour in all of these seats.”
He added: “What I’m saying to people here is… vote with your heart.”
You can keep across the latest from our correspondents on the campaign trail on ITVX.
Rent caps, tuition fees and electoral reform: Keir Starmer answers your questions
Sir Keir Starmer has suggested to ITV News he would like to get rid of university tuition fees if he wins power, but said the UK will only have enough tackle NHS waiting lists.
The Labour leader said fees "don't work well for either students or for universities" but he's been forced to take a "political choice" to avoid reforming them for now.
The man the polls predict to be the UK’s next prime minister answered questions on a range of topics, sent in to ITV News by social media users.
All the leaders of the other main parties have also submitted themselves to this format of questioning with the ITV News social media team, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also expected to take part before the election on July 4.
You can watch Sir Keir’s exchanges with ITV News Westminster Producer Lewis Denison on our YouTube channel.
ITV’s Tonight show ‘The Leader Interviews’ featuring Sir Keir airs this evening on ITV1 and ITVX from 8.30pm.
What’s coming up…
Thursday June 27: Junior doctors in England begin the 11th walk out in the long-running dispute - set to last five days.
Friday June 28: Office for National Statistics to confirm first quarter GDP figures.
Saturday June 29: Armed Forces Day.
Wednesday July 3: Last full day of campaigning for parties.
Thursday July 4: General Election day - polls open 7am, close 10pm.
And finally… do young people care enough to vote?
“Especially for the youth, it seems like we’re voting for the lesser of many evils…”
Annoyed, frustrated, angry - just some of the phrases a panel of young voters used when talking to ITV News Central Education Correspondent Peter Bearne.
He and five volunteers took part in an experiment to see what effect certain images related to the election had on them.
So, what did they learn? Watch Peter’s report on ITV News Central here.